Over the past few weeks, one trade group in Washington has triggered a media firestorm about a Commerce Department investigation into trade violations on imports of solar panel components. The organization, known as the Solar Energy Industries Association, has warned that the uncertainty surrounding the investigation has stopped imports of most solar components, canceling or delaying hundreds of large-scale solar projects, leading to probable layoffs and an attenuated build-out of renewable energy.

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But SEIA has gone with the 250 percent number. Whitten also cited to the Prospect “the retroactive nature of the tariffs” (they are not tariffs, but duties that offset Chinese subsidies) as a killer for the industry. It wants Commerce to preempt its own investigation and issue a preliminary ruling showing no harm.

But the key point is that any company that knows its supplier knows exactly what it would have to pay in the worst-case scenario. It’s written down on a sheet of paper. “The investment guys are in a panic because it will limit [profit] margin, but it’s not the end of the business,” said Lori Wallach, who runs Rethink Trade for the American Economic Liberties Project.

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It is important to note that the preponderance of the delays are from massive commercial solar arrays for governments and utilities, not rooftop solar. “They want the least expensive hardware,” said Wallach. “Yet they have known since the original AD/CVD cases of 2012 that Chinese sourcing was risky.”

And duty circumvention is not the only source of risk.

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This will all come to a head June 23, when the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act takes effect. Instead of short-term delays on shipments that can be sourced back to Xinjiang, there will be a full-on prohibition of those goods.

At least, that’s the theory. While CBP has caught some goods with slave labor, they have been criticized for mild disinterest in enforcement. The way it works is that the importer must affirmatively prove its goods are free of forced labor, and CBP must create an entities list that is prohibited, and a standard for how companies can get off the list. None of that has been completed yet, according to sources. “By statute, they should stop everything, but are they really going to do that?” asked Wallach.